Protein Markets
- Chinese crushers bought 6-7 cargoes of Brazilian beans to cover shortfalls due to the issues in the US Gulf, PNW supplies were already well sold across this period.
- Canadian canola crop forecast to fall to 12.78MMT vs 19.49MMT last year. Additional to the lower yield poor quality and low oil levels is causing significant issues.
- Rumors China has booked multiple cargoes from PNW post Hurricane Ida.
- China thought to be short 25% of October soybean requirement still.
- Soybeans rally significantly in the last 3 weeks due to India relaxation on GM stance and US logistics issues.
- U.S. NOPA (National Oilseed processor association) had August soybean processing fall to 158.8M Bushels vs 165.06m bushels last year. Soybean-oil inventories at the end of August 1.668, compared with 1.519b a year earlier.
- US corn / soybean price spreads conducive to larger US soybean planting next season.
PKE Markets
- Palm Kernel imports into NZ 1.2MMT Jan21-Aug21 vs 1.28MMT Jan20-Aug20.
- Malaysian Palm oil export expectations continue to show a surge on trade for the half of the month, with cargo inspectors estimating shipments for the September 1-15 period jump over 50% on the month respectively.
- India imported 750kmt of Palm oil in August due to advantageous pricing vs other oils.
Grains Markets
- Japan has issued a tender to purchase another 120kmt of wheat in December.
- Latest Canadian cereal crop estimates, Total wheat at 21.72MMT vs 35.18MMT last year. Barley
at 7.14MMT vs 10.74MMT last year. - Russian wheat yields 2.9 tons/hectare, compared with 3.15 tons/hectare last year. Despite this USDA forecasts still expects the wheat crop to be 75MMT.
- Brazil winter corn sales already 70% complete up 5-10% on normal due to smaller crop.
- Australian crop currently going backwards due to recent dry weather across SA/WA and frosts in WA. Despite this crop still expected to be very large.
- Domestic maize ground work continues although recent wet may slow further progress, growers are in no rush to contract at this early stage.
- South Island grain remains highly illiquid although some signs of a few more barley parcels starting to come to market. At this stage there is more than enough pent up demand to consume these tons.
at 7.14MMT vs 10.74MMT last year.
Currency / Political / Economic / Other
- NZD/USD trading at 0.709.
- Oil continues to make large gains with Brent Crude currently trading over $75/barrel.
- Lamb prices at record highs, currently trading at $9.30/kg.
- NZ GDP up 2.8% across Q2.
- NZ covid vaccine rollout up to 71% first dosed.
Dairy Markets
- NZ MKP for 20/21 season currently $7.61/kg/ms.
- NZ MKP for 21/22 season currently $8.09kg/ms.
- NZ MKP for 22/23 season currently $7.50/kg/ms.
- Singapore’s Olam confirms plan to build dairy plant in south Waikato.
- GDT auction #291 last week was up 4% overall with WMP up 3.3%.
